Supply of Norwegian seafood and the importance of the Italian Market 

Norwegian exports of Seafood to Italy

Figure 6 shows that over the past five years, there has been a steady increase in both value and volume for direct seafood exports from Norway to Italy. Notably, the largest increase in volume took place between 2020 and 2021, a clear effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. The value increase has been present all the way from 2020 through 2023 and at the end of 2024 the value of direct seafood export from Norway to Italy stands at around 7,4 billion NOK. 

The main species that drives this increased value was salmon, and looking at the salmon exports from Norway to Italy, it follows closely the one of overall seafood. 

Norwegian exports of Salmon to Italy 

Salmon has seen the exact same growth as seafood, both in terms of volume and value presented in figure 7. Of the total seafood exports from Norway, salmon makes up around 90 % for volume and stands at 87 % for value in 2024.

Comparing this share for salmon in 2024 to the one in 2020, the salmon share stood at 82 % for volume and 80 % for value. One explanation to this growth in shares is that the demand for salmon in Italy grew during the pandemic and has since been at a higher level than pre-pandemic. 

Norwegian exports of Salt- and Clipfish to Italy

In figure 8 a slightly different picture for the exports of salt- and clipfish from Norway to Italy is presented. There is a steep decrease in export volume and value between 2021 and 2022. However, after the initial fall there is a year-on-year increase for both value and volume until 2024.

Commenting on the different product types indicate that most of the initial decline comes from falling volumes of clipfish from cod. This category was around 27 % of the overall salt- and clipfish exports in 2021 but was in 2024 down at 20 % of the whole category.

Norwegian exports of Stockfish to Italy

Exports of stockfish from Norway to Italy have been stable at around 1900 tonnes yearly, apart from 2021. The effect of the increased consumption due to the pandemic can be viewed in figure 9, with volumes exceeding previous and future years by around 500 tonnes. Moreover, the clear spike in value comes because of a mixture of lower cod supply, inflation and a devalued NOK.

Consumption of salmon, saltfish- and baccalà and stockfish 

Based on trade flow analysis, which consider direct, indirect imports as well as re-exports to create an estimated consumption of a species or product category and the origins for the volumes consumed. 

In figure 10, there is clear evidence that the increased consumption of salmon has benefited Norway compared to other countries. Not only have Norway increased their share of the total salmon consumption, but the volume grew exponentially between 2020 and 2021. Another point is that the volumes consumed from Norway far outweighs the volumes exported. This indicates that a lot of the Norwegian salmon consumed in Italy have initially been exported to another country, to be processed further before entering Italy.  

Norway has not only benefited from the increased consumption, overall consumption has risen in Italy, and suggest an increased demand for Atlantic Salmon. 

Focusing on country of origin that export saltfish or baccalà indirectly or directly to Italy, provides the context presented in figure 11. For most of the years, the two leading countries are Norway and the Faroe Island, with the latter taking the largest share most of the years. Other origins also take up larger shares and mainly consist of saltfish or baccalà, mostly from Iceland. 

The country of origin that stockfish that is consumes in Italy, only comes from Norway, and in figure 12 this is presented. 

When examining the relationship between value and volume over the past five years, it is evident that exports to Italy have experienced a larger increase in value than in volume. This can be explained by the currency advantage of euros when purchasing Norwegian seafood. 

Another point is that most of the value increase is down to Italians increasing demand for Atlantic salmon during and post-pandemic. 

Reduced Supply of Cod drives the Prices up  
 
 

Declining volumes of cod landings in the first four months of the year has been declining year-over-year since 2022. The big picture indicate that cod landings have been reduced in half from 2022 to 2025 and this is in direct recommendation to the quota falling the same amount for the same period.

Lower quotas the recent years have been recommended by the Institute of Marine Research and implemented by the ministry of Trade, industry and Fisheries. The reason for lower quotas is that cod stocks have been declining for years, and to prevent this being a problem in the coming years, scientist have advised to lower the quota.  

Lower cod catches have led to higher prices, as presented in figure 14. The landing prices of cod have risen significantly in recent years. This increases the raw material costs for the industry in Norway, and has caused export prices for all major product formats to also increase (fresh and frozen whole and fillets, salted cod, baccalà, and stockfish). 

In Italy, the export price per kilo of stockfish from cod has doubled over the past five years, driven by declining supply and reduced availability. In the same period, other markets have increased their demand for cod, e.g. Portugal and their baccalà, which further press the price for other cod products up because of limited raw material.  

Expectations about future growth in Norwegian Salmon exports to Italy

Italy’s Atlantic salmon consumption mainly comes from Norway, as well as some imports from the UK (Scotland), the Faroe Island and other nations. In figure 15, the estimated future salmon production from Norway is presented. 

“The decline from 2021 is due to biological challenges and low sea temperatures. The growth seen from 2024 and going forward is driven by a gradual shift to larger smolt and shorter production time at sea. In addition, higher sea temperatures in autumn 2024 and so far in 2025 have improved salmon growth rates, contributing positively to volume growth.”

-          Paul T Aandahl, Seafood Analyst Salmon, Norwegian Seafood Council

The NSC, together with the Norwegian salmon industry aim to increase Italians salmon consumption by 25 000 tonnes by 2030. This would set overall salmon consumption in Italy at 161 500 tonnes. 

The main reason for this estimate is both limited growth from salmon production in Norway, as well as supply from other producing countries. Complemented by the fact that the Norwegian government has suggested plans for future growth with sustainable growth in the center called “Havbruksmeldingen”. This proposal focuses on value growth for salmon producers, with fish health and reducing negative environmental effects coming from salmon farming.