Megatrends continually shape the world we live in. But, because of their big-picture nature, it is not always clear to people what they are – or how we should understand them. In this report we want to take a structured approach to explaining these processes and how they interlink as well as how they might impact your planning for the future.
Learning from Changes and Trends
We’re not looking to come up with clever new names for the same things year after year. What we are looking to do, this year in particular, is to examine what drives certain changes in behaviour and what we can learn from those trends.
Within all this, we can see that what might stick in one market might not in another. What might drive consumption among a certain demographic might not appeal at all to another. While Norwegians appear to have moved onto the next big thing – the robot vacuum cleaner – the UK remains attached to the air fryer, for example.
In fact, last year’s must-have kitchen item has climbed the ranks to become the third-most-used appliance in UK kitchens, according to the The Good Food Nation survey, where toasters come in top (77%) followed by microwave ovens (75%), then air fryers (58%). And salmon has become a huge air-fryer favourite.
Still, if we zoom back out, we see that despite the nuance, these themes are all, ultimately, driven by the big, long-term megatrends set to influence the seafood market for decades to come.
Let’s take a look at how megatrends are shaping the seafood industry.
Photo: Rod Sot / Unsplash
The Technology Boom
Photo: Drew Williams / Pexels
The Technology Boom
This includes the rapid development of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and biotechnology. These advancements are expected to drive significant changes across various sectors, including healthcare, transportation and communication.
AI-powered analytics are optimising aquaculture practices:
Real-time monitoring:
AI analyses data from sensors and cameras to track fish behaviour, water quality and environmental conditions.
Disease detection:
Algorithms can detect early signs of disease through image analysis, allowing for targeted treatments that reduce antibiotic use.
Feed optimisation:
Machine learning can be used to identify efficient feed formulations and regimes, minimising waste and reducing environmental impact.
Blockchain technologyenhances transparency in tracking seafood to empower consumers with better information and improved trust:
Sea2See Project:
This EU-funded initiative creates blockchain models for seafood traceability, addressing gaps and providing consumers with accurate product information.
IBM Food Trust:
Is a platform enabling detailed tracking of seafood, including harvest date.
Future Tech
Biotechnology minds are developing sustainable alternatives, such as lab-grown seafood, that hold potential to reduce pressure on wild stocks as production scales. As of November 2024, commercial availability and production remain limited however.
Putting a Trace on It
In December 2024, a $6.5 tn investor coalition, supported by 35 investors including Nomura Asset Management and DNB Asset Management as well as organisations such as the UN’s Environment – Finance Initiative and WWF, called on seafood companies to ‘fully trace the origins of all wild-caught and farmed seafood they sell and all aquaculture feed ingredients they source’.
The campaigners described the issue as one of particular focus for investors, adding that ‘opaque supply chains obscure links to critical risks such as illegal fishing, habitat destruction and human rights violations – even in seafood with a sustainability certification.’
Demographic Shifts
Changes in population dynamics, such as aging populations in developed countries and growing populations in developing regions, will impact labour markets, healthcare systems and social security structures:
Urbanisation and population growth in developing regions are driving demand for convenient seafood options, including ready-to-eat or easy-to-prepare products
Some developed countries also have notable projected increases in single households, a change that has a big impact on the way people shop and eat
Aging populations in developed countries favour omega-3-rich options for health benefits
Innovations in packaging and distribution are critical to cater to urban lifestyles while maintaining product freshness and quality (e.g., Gareri, 2022) and in countries like South Korea for example, there is a big focus on maximising freshness in online food delivery.
‘Just chilled (fish) at home’
One of the main ways that consumers around the world are responding to price increases – and a clear convergence of megatrends linking cost with lifestyle changes – is to eat at home more often.
The steep change from restaurant to convenience to more affordable home cooking was also eased by the pandemic. The NSC’s research across 11 markets* shows that at least 29% (in Saudi Arabia and Sweden) of fish and seafood consumers are cooking at home more often in a bid to manage costs.
These figures rise to 40% or more in four of these markets: the UK (40%), Portugal (42%), Thailand (42%) and Vietnam (47%) but the trend is seen across the board.
*These figures come from NSC Deep Dives, 2024 on: Brazil, China, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK and Vietnam.
Environmental Changes
Climate change and environmental degradation are critical issues that will influence policy decisions, economic activities and societal behaviours. This includes the transition to sustainable energy sources and the need for resilient infrastructure and sustainable food sources.
Climate change has huge implications for seafood:
Rising ocean temperatures and acidification threaten marine ecosystems.
Species shift is also already happening, with the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration stressing the need to understand ‘these patterns of movement…to predict change and manage climate-resilient fisheries’.
Sustainable fishing must be prioritised and adaptive aquaculture technologies should be employed to meet consumer expectations for eco-friendly products – two areas where this megatrend ties closely to technological progress.
There is potential in these shifts: As well as the appetite for sustainable produce, the continued pressure of living costs could put the consumer spotlight onto ‘lesser’ species. At the time of writing (October 2024), fresh findings cited in a Norwegian news publication (e24.no) by the Consumption Research Institute Norway (SIFO) showed that the price increase for food was twice that of other goods over the last three years.
‘It’s too expensive’
Across 11 different markets, the NSC asked low-consumption fish and seafood eaters about the reasons they don’t eat this food more often. And price was an overwhelming factor.
While not always occupying the number-one spot, the figures are notable. In Brazil, 47% say seafood is too expensive; in Thailand this stands at 38%. In Sweden and South Korea, 27% and 28% of those who eat fish and seafood less regularly talk about cost as a factor.
In Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Taiwan and Vietnam cost is a barrier for anywhere from 19% to 39% of those considered ‘low’ consumers. Only in China (11%) and the UK (13%) does it become less of a factor.
Source: Ipsos Deep Dive 2024
Geopolitical changes
Shifts in global power dynamics, such as the rise of new superpowers and changing alliances, will impact international relations and global governance structures.
Shifting trade policies and global power dynamics can alter seafood supply chains, impacting market access:
Resilient sourcing and effective navigation of trade regulations are essential for maintaining global competitiveness, as is the need for a long-term view in order to be well-prepared for any shifts in trade policy.
Social changes
Societal values and behaviours are evolving, influenced by factors such as digitalisation, globalisation and changing cultural norms. This includes shifts in work patterns, education and lifestyle choices.
Evolving consumer values emphasise sustainability, ethical sourcing and health:
Sustainability: Consumers continue to support sustainable fishing practices despite economic challenges (MSC, 2024)
A willingness to pay more: Consumers are willing to pay an average premium of 9.7% for sustainably sourced goods, even with recent high inflation in mind (PwC, 2024)
The social license: Brands must actively demonstrate their commitment to environmental and social responsibility to align with conscientious consumer values – especially in an era of heightened consumer awareness.
‘I’m willing to pay more’
Despite figures showing that cost is a key barrier – at least for those eating seafood less often – we also see a strong willingness to pay more for sustainable options.
Looking at markets from China (78%) to Thailand (71%), the UK (56%) to Brazil (53%), consumers say they are willing to pay more for sustainable fish and seafood. Across 11 global deep dive studies, the lowest this figure drops to is 37% in Spain and Portugal – a clear indication of the benefits that can come from having sustainable seafood options available to the consumers.
Source: Ipsos Deep Dive 2024
The Woven World of Megatrends
Of course, megatrends do not develop in a void. Instead, they are interlinked, reshaping industries, societies and global power structures in significant ways. As these trends interact, they in turn give rise to other emerging trends.
Technological Advancements and Demographic Shifts
Rapid developments in technologies like AI, robotics and biotechnology are helping to address issues related to aging populations, particularly in developed countries.
For instance, innovations such as telemedicine and automation are not only improving elder care but also addressing labour shortages in healthcare. This trend is fostering the rise of the ‘silver economy,’ where economic activity is increasingly focused on meeting the needs of older populations (2023; PwC, 2022).
Environmental Changes and Technological Innovations
Photo: Shutterstock seed vault
Environmental Changes and Technological Innovations
Climate change is a driving force behind the push for technological innovations such as renewable energy, carbon capture and advanced climate modelling.
These technologies are crucial for mitigating the impact of environmental degradation and their development is driving new regulations and economic opportunities, especially in sectors focused on sustainability (PwC, 2022; World Economic Forum, 2023).
This interaction shows how environmental imperatives are spurring technological growth, which in turn influences economic policy.
Urbanisation and Economic Shifts
Rapid urbanisation, particularly in developing nations, is closely tied to global economic shifts. Emerging markets in regions like Asia and Africa are leading urban growth, which is driving the demand for infrastructure investments in smart cities, transportation and housing.
This, in turn, accelerates innovations in green building technologies and sustainable urban planning, further reinforcing the link between environmental sustainability and economic development (World Economic Forum, 2023).
Geopolitical Changes and Technological Disruption
The rise of new global powers is closely connected to advancements in technology. Countries investing heavily in emerging technologies like AI, quantum computing and cybersecurity are gaining geopolitical leverage. However, this technological competition also brings challenges, such as cybersecurity risks and increased misinformation, which are shaping new governance structures and international relations (PwC, 2022; Oxfam, 2020).
