Scenario planning helps navigate complex and volatile environments by assessing multiple potential future outcomes, enhancing agility, resilience and informed decision-making.
Megatrends impact all aspects of life. They are long-term forces driving change and they do not evolve in isolation; instead, they interact with one another in a dance that makes it especially challenging to analyse them separately.
It is clear these themes will influence seafood consumption but it remains hard to bring them home and understand exactly how they might impact what you – and your consumer – do.
Scenarios Outcome Futures Platform
Systematic Thinking
Here, the work carried out by the European Commission’s Competence Centre on Foresights, the World Economic Forum and the Futures Platform’s guide to scenario planning (Kuosa et al, 2024) can each help guide us in thinking more systematically about the ways big-picture drivers of change might result in real-life consumer shifts.
Unlike planning for a single-future development, scenario planning is all about assessing several potential future outcomes and how they might interact with change drivers, existing and emerging trends and megatrends.
Scenario planning allows us to more easily bring together these different elements as well as being more flexible in our expectations – and our preparations for different futures.
A Scenario State of Mind
In a world increasingly defined by complexity and volatility, scenario planning offers strategic pathways that consider both high-probability trends and unpredictable disruptions.
This approach helps to frame long-term uncertainties in a way that enhances agility, resilience and informed decision-making.
Varying Conditions
Unlike forecasting, which often relies on past data trends, the focus in scenario planning is on exploring how different drivers might interact under various conditions. This makes it especially useful in managing ‘wild card’ events – those rare but impactful changes that traditional models might overlook.
And if you think some events might be too far-fetched, remind yourself that, just a few years ago, we all wore masks to shop and pushed elevator buttons with our elbows. Today, planning for extreme situations that include global pandemics or unpredictable supply chain disruption is part of the business narrative.
Identifying Uncertainties
Scenario planning typically begins by defining the scope and objectives, identifying critical uncertainties and prioritising factors that could have the most significant impacts on an organisation’s future.
Two widely-used scenario development methods are the Axes of Uncertainty and the Futures Table approaches. The first method involves identifying the most impactful uncertainties and using them to create contrasting scenarios, while the second organises potential changes into a structured table, facilitating an overview of plausible scenarios across multiple dimensions.
Photo: Andreas Kleiberg
What you need to do:
What you need to do:
Define key uncertainties:
By focusing on uncertainties that would substantially impact your work, scenario planning captures diverse futures.
In the context of global megatrends, including demographic shifts and technological advancements, uncertainties might include the speed of AI adoption or the trajectory of environmental regulations.
Develop your scenario:
In practice, this involves developing narratives for each possible future, detailing how key uncertainties might influence technological, environmental and social factors.
This stage encourages creative but strategic thinking: try to immerse yourself in different futures to understand the potential implications of any possible outcome.
Add scenario planning to strategy alignment:
The final step involves integrating scenario insights into your strategic planning. By recognising common themes across different scenarios, robust and flexible strategies can be developed and adapted as trends evolve.
Companies might prioritise sustainable practices that align with multiple scenarios, for example, supporting resilience regardless of specific outcomes.
Example Scenarios
We have created four different medium term scenarios to illustrate how the scenario modelling works.
Scenario 1:
Sustainable Seafood Boom
Horizon: 2025-2030
In this scenario, the shift towards sustainable seafood practices begins to take effect within the next five years. Governments and organizations implement strict regulations, and consumers increasingly demand sustainably sourced seafood. Advances in aquaculture technologies contribute to the rapid growth of the sustainable seafood market.
Scenario 2:
Technological Disruption in Seafood Production
Horizon: 2025-2035
Technological innovations in seafood production, such as lab-grown seafood, take a bit longer to become mainstream. Over the next decade, advances in biotechnology and cellular agriculture enable the production of high-quality, affordable seafood. Consumer acceptance grows, leading to a significant shift in the seafood industry.
Scenario 3:
Seafood Scarcity and Market Volatility
Horizon: 2025-2030
The impacts of overfishing and climate change on marine ecosystems become more pronounced within the next five years. Governments struggle to enforce regulations, and illegal fishing activities increase. The scarcity of seafood drives up prices, leading to market volatility and supply chain disruptions. Consumers turn to alternative protein sources to meet their dietary needs.
Scenario 4:
Trade Wars and Geopolitical Instability
Horizon: 2025-2030
Trade wars and geopolitical tensions disrupt global seafood supply chains within the next five years. Escalating trade wars and geopolitical conflicts lead to significant market volatility and higher prices for seafood. Consumers face limited access to seafood, and the industry struggles to adapt to the rapidly changing trade landscape.
In scenario 1, strict regulations are implemented to ensure sustainable fishing practices.
Scenario 1: Sustainable Seafood Boom
Scenario 1: Sustainable Seafood Boom
1. Defining Scope and Objectives:
The objective is to explore the potential future of seafood and seafood consumption with a focus on sustainability. The key strategic concern is the impact of sustainable practices on the seafood industry.
2. Identifying Key Uncertainties and Change Drivers:
Environmental regulations and policies
Consumer awareness and demand for sustainable products
Technological advancements in aquaculture
Climate change and its impact on marine ecosystems
3. Grouping, Voting, and Rating:
Stakeholders prioritize the importance of environmental regulations and consumer demand as the most uncertain and impactful factors.
4. Building the Scenario Narratives:
In this scenario, strict regulations are implemented to ensure sustainable fishing practices. Consumers demand sustainably sourced seafood, and advances in aquaculture technologies allow for efficient and eco-friendly seafood farming. The market for sustainable seafood grows rapidly, leading to healthier oceans and a stable supply of seafood.
5. Integrating the Results into Decision-Making:
Organizations develop action plans to invest in sustainable practices and technologies. They conduct strategy stress-testing to ensure resilience in the face of regulatory changes and shifting consumer preferences. Regular monitoring of environmental and market trends is conducted to adapt strategies as needed.
Scenario 2: Technological Disruption in Seafood Production
1. Defining Scope and Objectives:
The objective is to explore the potential future of seafood and seafood consumption with a focus on technological innovations. The key strategic concern is the impact of lab-grown seafood on the traditional seafood industry.
2. Identifying Key Uncertainties and Change Drivers:
Advances in biotechnology and cellular agriculture
Consumer acceptance of lab-grown seafood
Regulatory approval and market entry of lab-grown products
Environmental impact of traditional fishing practices
3. Grouping, Voting, and Rating:
Stakeholders prioritize the importance of technological advancements and consumer acceptance as the most uncertain and impactful factors.
4. Building the Scenario Narratives:
In this scenario, lab-grown seafood becomes mainstream, offering a viable alternative to wild-caught and farmed seafood. Advances in biotechnology enable the production of high-quality, affordable seafood without the need for fishing. Consumers embrace lab-grown seafood for its sustainability and health benefits, leading to a decline in traditional seafood consumption.
5. Integrating the Results into Decision-Making:
Organizations invest in research and development of lab-grown seafood technologies. They develop marketing strategies to promote the benefits of lab-grown seafood and address consumer concerns. Regular monitoring of technological advancements and consumer trends is conducted to adapt strategies as needed.
In scenario 3, overfishing and climate change severely impact marine ecosystems, leading to a decline in seafood stocks.
Scenario 3: Seafood Scarcity and Market Volatility
Scenario 3: Seafood Scarcity and Market Volatility
1. Defining Scope and Objectives:
The objective is to explore the potential future of seafood and seafood consumption with a focus on scarcity and market volatility. The key strategic concern is the impact of overfishing and climate change on seafood availability.
2. Identifying Key Uncertainties and Change Drivers:
Overfishing and illegal fishing activities
Climate change and its impact on marine ecosystems
Government regulations and enforcement
Alternative protein sources
3. Grouping, Voting, and Rating:
Stakeholders prioritize the importance of overfishing and climate change as the most uncertain and impactful factors.
4. Building the Scenario Narratives:
In this scenario, overfishing and climate change severely impact marine ecosystems, leading to a decline in seafood stocks. Governments struggle to enforce regulations, and illegal fishing activities increase. The scarcity of seafood drives up prices, making it a luxury item for many consumers. Market volatility and supply chain disruptions become common, affecting the availability and affordability of seafood. Consumers turn to alternative protein sources to meet their dietary needs.
5. Integrating the Results into Decision-Making:
Organizations develop strategies to diversify their protein sources and reduce reliance on traditional seafood. They invest in alternative protein technologies and develop contingency plans to address supply chain disruptions. Regular monitoring of environmental and market trends is conducted to adapt strategies as needed.
Scenario 4: Trade Wars and Geopolitical Instability
1. Defining Scope and Objectives:
The objective is to explore the potential future of seafood and seafood consumption in the context of trade wars and geopolitical instability. The key strategic concern is the impact of trade policies and geopolitical tensions on the seafood industry.
2. Identifying Key Uncertainties and Change Drivers:
Trade policies and tariffs
Geopolitical tensions and conflicts
Global supply chain disruptions
Economic sanctions and retaliatory measures
3. Grouping, Voting, and Rating:
Stakeholders prioritize the importance of trade policies and geopolitical tensions as the most uncertain and impactful factors.
4. Building the Scenario Narratives:
In this scenario, escalating trade wars and geopolitical tensions severely disrupt global seafood supply chains. Trump's tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China lead to retaliatory measures, causing significant market volatility.
Geopolitical conflicts further exacerbate the situation, with economic sanctions and trade restrictions affecting the availability and affordability of seafood. The global trade order is thrown into chaos, and financial markets experience heightened uncertainty.
Consumers face higher prices and limited access to seafood, leading to a shift towards alternative protein sources. The seafood industry struggles to adapt to the rapidly changing trade landscape, and companies invest in diversifying their supply chains and exploring new markets.
5. Integrating the Results into Decision-Making:
Organizations develop strategies to mitigate the impact of trade wars and geopolitical instability. They invest in supply chain resilience, including diversifying suppliers and exploring alternative markets.
Contingency plans are created to address potential disruptions, and regular monitoring of geopolitical developments is conducted to adapt strategies as needed. Companies also focus on building strong relationships with key stakeholders and advocating for stable trade policies.
