‘China is so large that changes in demand can have an impact on the other side of the world,’ says Louis Harkell, a seafood journalist with Undercurrent News, where he oversees price data for more than 3,000 seafood products across the global supply chain.
Interview with Louis Harkell
Journalist, Undercurrent News"China is so large it can impact the other side of the world."
Journalist, Undercurrent News
He’s also a person with a particular interest in China – sparked by a gap year that included some time in the country before university, where he studied Chinese and politics.
He uses domestic crayfish as an example of how an uptick in Chinese consumption can have far-flung, knock-on effects.
‘When something becomes a fad in China, it can really blow up. We saw this with the crayfish craze that happened around 2017, 2018. Crayfish is cultivated in rice paddies in rural areas and definitely hadn’t been ‘in-demand’. Then, some crayfish marinades got trendy and suddenly it was everywhere.'
'It completely changed the sector. Before, most crayfish was processed and exported as tails to Europe and North America. But the raw material price just skyrocketed. Pret A Manger – a go-to sandwich and coffee chain loved by millions in the UK – actually had to stop making its crayfish and avocado sandwich because the price was too high.'
‘That is such a good demonstration of how, in a market as large as China, a hot product can have reverberations around the world.’
Louis also explains that, pre-pandemic, some segments of the imported seafood market – warm-water shrimp in particular – seemed unstoppable. At one point, China was importing 20% more shrimp every year and he says the feeling was very much ‘the sky’s the limit’.
Even after the pandemic slowdown, the assumption was that this trend would pick up again. ‘But that hasn’t been the case at all: now the feeling is that we hit the ceiling way earlier than many people thought.’
Where the rise of imported warm-water shrimp has stalled however, cold-water prawns have stepped in somewhat. ‘These are largely distinct as a market,’ says Louis, ‘though I believe warm-water shrimp can have an effect on coldwater prices.’
And Norway has been a beneficiary here: year-on-year exports of prawns to China were up 244% in 2025, with value getting a massive 345% hike. Louis says this is ‘partly down to Chinese tariffs of 25% imposed on coldwater prawns from Canada last March.’
Salmon is another species on the up. ‘China’s salmon imports in 2025 have
been extraordinary,’ comments Louis. ‘It shows that what happens for one
species doesn’t necessarily determine what’s going to happen elsewhere. It
also shows that the population is big enough to really move the dial when it starts to get into a product in a big way.’
Given the size of the China market, data is an essential tool to developing a real understanding of these movements. But Louis says reliable data has become increasingly ‘opaque’, particularly since the Chinese economy began slowing more after Covid.
This can make an already complex market even harder to get a handle on and Louis points to the price data he works on daily as a key prop.
Reporting wholesale prices for fresh Atlantic Salmon in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, from all the major origins, on a weekly basis ‘gives us a great starting point to better understand what’s going on in seafood,’ he says.