Keeping in mind that income is the biggest indicator of high-value seafood consumption, middle-class and higher income growth prospects tell a tale of opportunity.
Opportunity and growth
By 2030, NSC research finds that 68 Chinese cities will have at least one million middle-class residents, indicating widespread potential for high-value seafood consumption.
To narrow that opportunity list down, researchers point to 11 cities they believe have the highest potential for growth. These are the ‘big four’ tier-one cities plus the seven up-and-comers.
From that list, five have been identified for high-income growth potential – those households with a disposable income of $70,000.
Suzhou, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing and Shanghai are each expected to double their populations of high-income households, from one million today to two million by 2030, even against the backdrop of a slowing economy.
By 2030, NSC research finds that 68 Chinese cities will have at least one million middle-class residents, indicating widespread potential for high-value seafood consumption.
These are all impressive numbers. But they pale in comparison to the true scale of the Chinese seafood market, which is around 70 million tonnes in total.
Imported seafood is a very small piece of that. If you take out the products that come in for processing, only to be exported out again, imported seafood totals 1.5 to two million tonnes, says Sigmund, of which warm-water prawns make up a large chunk.
Then we come to salmon. The imported salmon category grew more than 50% in value last year, though Atlantic salmon imports – from all countries – still totalled just 181,000 tonnes.
In terms of entire seafood consumption in China, salmon is tiny. But in the minds of the right consumers, salmon enjoys much more space: it is very well known and seen as an everyday luxury product that you buy as a treat, with that air of exclusivity. And raw is most aspirational.